Why is it better to host the Tokyo Olympics than not to host it?
From the perspective of reducing economic losses
Why the Tokyo Olympics must be held
文/Yu Tianren
Published on 2021.7.19, Issue 1004, "China News Weekly"
The Tokyo Olympics, which was supposed to be held last year, will be held on July 23 this year after being postponed for one year due to the new crown epidemic.
However, Tokyo entered a state of emergency for the fourth time due to the pandemic on July 8. At the same time, in order to prevent the pandemic from spreading further, all Olympic events in Tokyo were held without spectators.
The various magical operations of the Japanese government on the Olympics issue are dazzling. All public opinion surveys so far have shown that the proportion of supporting the Tokyo Olympics is far lower than that of opposition forces. Even the Emperor Ling and the emperor have broken the convention and expressed concern. Why does the Japanese government stand on the opposite side of public opinion? Of course there are some abstract concepts such as "peace festival" and "link of connection", but as we all know, such politically correct rhetoric is just prevarication, not the real reason.
The biggest consideration of the Japanese government comes from the economy, and it wants to minimize the financial losses caused by the suspension. According to estimates by the Nomura Research Institute of Japan, if the Tokyo Olympics is held normally, it can bring about 1.81 trillion yen (about 17 billion US dollars) in economic benefits. If it is closed, the number will of course return to zero. If the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee accepts half of the spectators and the total number of visitors in late June is no more than 10,000, the loss will be less than 90 billion yen, and the economic benefit will be about 1.72 trillion yen. Even if there is no spectator to watch the game, the loss is only 146.8 billion yen (approximately 1.3 billion U.S. dollars), and the economic benefit at this time is about 1.66 trillion yen. From the perspective of reducing economic losses, the Olympic Games is "better to run than not to run."
Of course, this decision is risky. If a pandemic occurs among the people involved in the General Assembly during the Olympics or the epidemic expands due to the movement of people in the General Assembly, the cabinet and the Liberal Democratic Party will bear the responsibility. Yoshihide Suga’s term of office of the Liberal Democratic Party ends at the end of September, and the term of the House of Representatives will expire on October 21. The success or failure of the Olympic Games will surely affect the results of these two elections.
So Yoshihide Kan and his cabinet made a big bet. Needless to say the benefits of gambling to win.
First of all, the successful hosting of the Olympic Games under the epidemic can inspire the people of Japan and the world. A successful Olympics can bring a ray of positive light to the people through the forgiving spirit shown by the athletes. Secondly, a successful Olympics can further establish Japan’s role in the international community. A good image can enhance Japan’s soft power; in the end, a successful Olympics can help Yoshihide Suga continue to serve as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party and help the Liberal Democratic Party win the House of Representatives election before the end of October.
Yoshihide Suga has had a lacklustre political performance since he took over Shinzo Abe as prime minister in September last year. The poor response to the epidemic and Japan’s vaccination rate is the lowest among the G7, which has severely affected the economy. Therefore, the public’s support for the Yoshihide Suga cabinet and the Liberal Democratic Party is very ugly. A poll conducted by the Jiji News Agency in mid-June showed that the approval rate of Yoshihide Suga's cabinet was 33.1%, and the disapproval rate was 44.2%. The disapproval rate surpassed the approval rate. The prospects for such an election are a bit bad.
In the three state-level parliamentary by-elections held on April 25, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost all. In the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections held on July 5, the Liberal Democratic Party and the coalition partner Komeito did not add up to more than half. The Japanese government and the Liberal Democratic Party need a successful Olympics to help the election.
It should be said that the probability of success of the Tokyo Olympics is still guaranteed to a certain extent. In any case, the vaccination rate in Japan is continuously increasing, and if the conference organizing committee can really implement "capsule closed management" of the conference personnel and cut off internal and external communication, the increase in the flow of people may not expand. epidemic.
What is more interesting is that the Japanese government seems to have found a scapegoat for itself in case of failure, and that is the International Olympic Committee. Japan does not necessarily have to host the Olympics, but has to do it, because the International Olympic Committee has to do it and they cannot resist it. In these days, the International Olympic Committee has been successfully built by the Japanese into a group of hypocrites who wear five sacred auras on their heads, but actually ignore the ethics and laws of the world.
(The author is an engineer traveling to Japan who likes history. He has works "A Type of War Criminals Called Staff" and "The vast ocean is a casino")
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