谁控制了粮食，谁就控制了世界？粮食背后的美国霸权主义

谁控制了粮食，谁就控制了世界？粮食背后的美国霸权主义

2023年开始随着俄乌战争的持续，在全球下行压力巨大的今天，全球粮食价格飞速飙涨。

这飙涨的背后仿佛有很多只手在互相博弈，可以说当今世界控制了粮食就控制了世界。

一场关乎国家命运的粮食战争悄然开始。

为什么粮食战争步步逼近我们退无可退？全球农业的当前格局是怎样的？

粮食战争的背后究竟隐藏着哪些阴谋？接下来就来聊一聊全球粮食战争背后的博弈，以及事关我国千年农业史的大变革。

一、美元霸权粮食战争的导火索

有人会说哪里有什么粮食危机，你看咱们不是吃的好好的。可是我们真正脱离饥饿也不过数10年。

而随着疫情的爆发持续，俄乌战争对全球政治和经济的影响，目前石油战争之后，粮食战争一触即发。

越来越多的国家意识到，保卫粮食就是保卫国家安全。

由于各个国家的战略考虑，屯粮成为世界各国的共同主张。

因此可以看到很多国家都加入粮食禁运的队伍，并且宣称粮食紧张，而且整个队伍还在不断扩大中。通俗来说就是禁止粮食出口。

而美国2万亿美元的刺激计划，更是让本就脆弱的粮食市场雪上加霜。

可以说2万亿美元是粮食战争的直接导火索。之所以这么说主要还是美元霸权惹的祸。

美元作为当今全球贸易的结算货币。

2万亿美元的经济刺激计划，即使从经济刺激占GDP比重的算法来看，在人类历史上称得上数一数二。

2万亿美元刺激方案的消息价值几何呢？

美国股票市场从最低点18,000算起，短短4天就反弹了4000点，更是带动和缓解全球资本市场危局，避免了新一轮的金融危机。

这足以证明美元在全球经济中的主导地位。

那么2万亿美元的刺激计划到底包含了哪些具体内容？

这些钱主要是面向这些急需救助的对象，现金流断裂的企业开支巨大的医疗体系，低收入者、旅游业和航空业等。

相比于咱们4万亿的刺激计划，美国的这份方案更像是直升机撒钱。

说白了2万亿几乎全部都进了企业和家庭部门的口袋，没有生产没有投资，这是为什么呢？

因为美元的金融霸权这场2万亿美元的援助需要全世界人民分担。

通俗来讲就是美元割世界韭菜。首先美元是主权信用，货币代表的是政府信用。

其次政府信用代表的是经济体的生产力，所以人们通常不能乱发货币，核心原因是生产力的发展是螺旋式上升的人。

人类过去100年的生产力平均增速大约为2%，那么为了让人民感觉日子一天比一天好，寅吃卯粮的现象开始出现。

通常经济市场中主要由政府、企业、个人三部分组成。

拿我国2008年4万亿此计划来看。

政府举债掏钱把货币支付给企业部门进行基础设施建设，然后在造桥造路造房子的过程中消耗水泥钢材劳动力，通过买卖商品和服务把货币转移给人民。

然后人民再消费进行回收，避免通胀。要知道这只能在国内消费。

可是2万亿美元计划中政府部门举债掏钱把货币直接支付给家庭部门进行消费或医疗支出。

最重要的原因是美元在全世界都能换来商品和服务。

这等于是把全世界人民一起放水通胀了一遍，但是好处只落在了美国人手里。

美元霸权的现实就是这么肆无忌惮。

人们看到全球危机之下大量的资本回流美元避险。这样一来美元指数就开始飙涨。

这时候新兴国家货币就开始大幅贬值。

比如东南亚等主要粮食出口国的本币都大幅度贬值，出口价格开始飞升。泰国、越南、印度、孟加拉等国大米出口价格继续上涨。

因为疫情传播使得市场担心大米供应，这种恐慌的蔓延，使得世界各国都不得不下达粮食出口禁令。

根据联合早报的消息，全球多国为了迎战新冠肺炎，纷纷下令禁止粮食出口。

一场以邻为壑的逆向全球化运动正在病毒的协助之下展开，没有人希望自己被2万亿美元的镰刀收割。

二、中国粮食战争下暗藏的风险与危机

从全球农业的格局来看，依然是围绕内在的供需和外在的资本占为主线内求生存。

安全外谋发展垄断，通过大规模的量产科学技术的力量和政府津贴，主要的农业国将进口国的自有农业打压摧残。

目前欧美前10大种子巨头占中国市场份额65%，国内种子巨头在国内份额才35%，过度分散不利于发展。

所以中国农业从多个维度上都和世界级的农业强国存在较大差距，这不是一朝一夕能够改变的，血淋淋的真相和残酷的现实需要自主可控逐步缓解。

那么作为全球最大粮食进口国的中国是如何应对这次粮食战争呢？从官方回应来看，总体意思是可防可控。但是对此我们还是要谨慎乐观。

截止2022年12月，黑龙江等7个主产区累计收购大豆267万吨。

同比减少18万吨，通过数据比对可以明显得出一个结论及大豆价格在一涨再涨的前提下，我国大豆同比收购还减少了18万吨。

联合国粮食及农业组织最新发布的一份报告显示，新冠肺炎疫情已经影响了至少44个需要外部粮食援助的国家.

而全世界只有约5%的国家能够实现粮食自给自足，粮食出口量较大的国家只有10余个。

作为全球最大的粮食进口国，目前我国的粮食供给进入到了双威胁的阶段.

一方面是全球疫情导致贸易中断，另一方面是重大虫害造成的潜在影响。

从中美农业发展对比来看。从中国农业千年的历史来看。中国农业发展的根本目的是吃饭，美国的农业发展的根本是资本。

但是由于我国缺乏懂得金融市场的农业资本和巨头，也没有完整的农产数据库。

当种植大豆、玉米等重要经济作物的农民被赶出这片市场之后，作为需求大国，我们就成为被动的买方。

再加上我国的人工成本、土地成本各项费用都远高于美国农业，都会在未来，成为我国粮食战争下暗藏的风险与危机。

三、掌控了粮食就掌控了所有人

世界粮食巨头早已在中国布局30年，一场“惊天阳谋”悄悄发生在你我身边却没有能能够察觉。

金龙鱼调和油这个牌子相信大家都吃过，但是就像中华牙膏实际是外资品牌一样，金龙鱼的幕后boss其实也是海外巨头。

金龙鱼的实控人叫益海嘉里集团郭鹤年家族，祖籍福建，马来西亚首富发家于新加坡亚。

1987年推出金龙鱼品牌小包装食用油发展数年后壮大后撇下中粮自立门户。

被动的中粮迅速调整战略，在1995年推出福临门展开竞争。

具备全球战略眼光的郭鹤年通过与美国巨头世界四大粮商之一的ATM公司成立合资公司。

益海集团布局产业链上游在2002~2003年中国大豆危机的时刻横扫中国榨油厂，一举成为中国榨油领域的霸主。

而更让人担忧的是这样一个掌控着国民食物供应的巨头，除了郭氏家族外，还包括美国巨头AD、邦吉、加吉和法国路易达夫。

难怪美国前国务卿基辛格说过一句名言，如果你掌控了石油，你就掌控了国家，如果你掌控了粮食，你就掌控了所有人。

要知道这四家俗称ABCD四大粮商，控制了全球80%的粮食贸易量。

为摆脱近年来的不利局面，我国的种植扩张开始转向海外。

例如重庆粮食局2010年在巴西种植大豆，2012年在阿阿根廷打造粮食基地。

上市公司大北农在2019年获得了阿根廷政府的批准，开始种植培育转基因大豆。

除了控制贸易土地等资源以外，核心的种子技术也基本几乎都掌握在外资手中。

所幸我国在前两年通过央企中国化工集团成功收购瑞士种子巨头，先正达成功在种子领域跟上第一梯队，仅次于美国、德国。

尽管我们在竭力突围，可是在外资的布置的上游种子和下游成品的产业链战术进攻下，目前我国的应对只能勉强做到饮鸩止渴。

回首ABCD进入我国的布局节奏和谋划，世界级资本巨头的降维打击令人徒无奈何。

2亿多伞又小的农民根本不是他们的对手，我们呼唤和期待更大的国际巨头去抗衡。

世界资本从1972年尼克松访华以后加急于中国开展贸易，目前年贸易额超50亿美元，并且已经是中国最大的买家之一。

并且还建立了各项全资公司，除了种植以意外加急已经完成产业链的搭建。

2006年路易达夫获得国内玉米贸易许可证，同时他在美国的棉花公司已经是中国最大的棉花供应商。

ADM通过金龙鱼控制我国米面油的故事，相信大家已经听清楚了，回想起来势必浑身冰凉，瑟瑟发抖。

更可怕的是金龙鱼过去20多年不断上调价格的黑历史让人胆寒。

这场没有硝烟的战争就在我们身边开打，大家看到的出口禁令无非是小规模的接触战役，一旦触发将是更紧张的关系。

如今全球在面对病毒、地缘政治、自然灾害等不利因素下，粮食战争正在全球范围冒起硝烟熊熊燃烧。

联合国粮食及农业组织高级经济学家表示，由于诸多不确定因素，各国民众和政府恐慌性囤积食品食品通胀可能即将来临。

一场全球性的粮食危机可能一触即发，这不是供应问题，疫情引发了人们在粮食安全方面的行为变化。

不仅如此，联合国粮农组织预计，未来三年内爆发全球性的粮食危机。

中国大豆已经沦陷，稻谷、小麦、玉米三大主粮也在不断陷入国际资本的棋局之中。

未来如何才能从容应对，这的确值得每个人思考。

结语

东北产业链从种子种植、仓储、加工一条龙服务比比皆是，为了发展为了招商引资。

地方政府偷偷引入国际粮商的案例比比皆是，甚至还给予优惠便利的各项条件。

国际巨头兵马未动，粮草先行，国之安危重在细节。呼唤更多的人看清真相，呼唤更多的声音，唤醒粮食安全的力量。

或许真相只有一个，疫情三年让更多人看到这个真实的世界，只有掌控自主安全才能在未来立于不败之地。

Starting from 2023, with the continuation of the Russo Ukrainian War and the enormous global downward pressure, global food prices have skyrocketed.

Behind this skyrocketing trend, it seems like many hands are playing games with each other. It can be said that the world today controls the world by controlling food.

A food war that concerns the fate of the country has quietly begun.

Why is the food war approaching and we cannot retreat? What is the current pattern of global agriculture?

What conspiracies are hidden behind the food war? Next, let's talk about the game behind the global food war and the significant changes related to China's millennium old agricultural history.

1、 The fuse of the US dollar hegemony food war

Some people may say that there is a food crisis somewhere, but you see, we don't eat well. But we have only been out of hunger for ten years.

As the outbreak of the epidemic continues, the impact of the Russo Ukrainian War on global politics and economy is imminent. After the current oil war, a food war is imminent.

More and more countries are realizing that safeguarding food is safeguarding national security.

Due to the strategic considerations of various countries, grain farming has become a common proposition among countries around the world.

Therefore, it can be seen that many countries have joined the ranks of food embargoes and claimed that food is scarce, and the entire team is still expanding. Simply put, it means banning the export of grain.

The $2 trillion stimulus plan in the United States has further exacerbated the already fragile food market.

It can be said that $2 trillion was the direct trigger for the food war. The main reason for saying this is due to the hegemony of the US dollar.

The US dollar is the settlement currency for global trade today.

The $2 trillion economic stimulus plan, even from the calculation of the proportion of economic stimulus to GDP, can be considered one of the best in human history.

What is the message value of the $2 trillion stimulus plan?

The US stock market has rebounded by 4000 points in just 4 days from its lowest point of 18000, which has driven and alleviated the crisis in the global capital market and avoided a new round of financial crisis.

This is enough to prove the dominant position of the US dollar in the global economy.

So what are the specific contents of the $2 trillion stimulus plan?

These funds are mainly aimed at those in urgent need of assistance, such as companies with cash flow disruptions and huge healthcare systems, low-income individuals, tourism, and aviation industries.

Compared to our $4 trillion stimulus plan, this plan in the United States is more like a helicopter throwing money.

To put it bluntly, almost all of the 2 trillion yuan has been put into the pockets of businesses and household sectors, without production or investment. Why is this?

Because of the financial hegemony of the US dollar, this $2 trillion aid needs to be shared by people around the world.

Simply put, it means the US dollar cutting the world's leeks. Firstly, the US dollar represents sovereign credit, while the currency represents government credit.

Secondly, government credit represents the productivity of the economy, so people usually cannot issue currency indiscriminately. The core reason is that the development of productivity is a spiral of people.

The average growth rate of human productivity over the past 100 years has been about 2%, so in order to make people feel better day by day, the phenomenon of living beyond their means has begun to occur.

Usually, the economic market is mainly composed of three parts: government, enterprises, and individuals.

Take China's 2008 4 trillion yuan plan as an example.

The government borrows money to pay the enterprise sector for infrastructure construction, and then consumes cement and steel labor in the process of building bridges, roads, and houses. By buying and selling goods and services, the currency is transferred to the people.

Then the people will consume and recycle to avoid inflation. You should know that this can only be consumed domestically.

However, in the $2 trillion plan, government departments borrowed money to directly pay the household sector for consumption or medical expenses.

The most important reason is that the US dollar can be exchanged for goods and services worldwide.

This is equivalent to inflating the people of the world together, but the benefits only fall to the Americans.

The reality of US dollar hegemony is so unbridled.

People are seeing a large amount of capital flowing back to the US dollar as a safe haven under the global crisis. As a result, the US dollar index began to soar.

At this point, emerging country currencies began to depreciate significantly.

For example, major grain exporting countries such as Southeast Asia have seen their currencies depreciate significantly, and export prices have started to skyrocket. The export prices of rice from countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh continue to rise.

Due to the spread of the epidemic, the market is concerned about the supply of rice, and the spread of this panic has forced countries around the world to impose food export bans.

According to the Lianhe Zaobao, many countries around the world have ordered to ban grain exports in order to fight COVID-19.

A beggar-thy-neighbor anti globalization movement is unfolding with the assistance of the virus, and no one wants to be reaped by a $2 trillion sickle.

2、 Hidden Risks and Crises under China's Grain War

From the perspective of the global agricultural pattern, it still revolves around the main line of internal supply and demand and external capital occupation for survival.

Security external development monopoly, through large-scale mass production of science and technology and government subsidies, major agricultural countries suppress and destroy the own agriculture of importing countries.

At present, the top 10 seed giants in Europe and America account for 65% of the Chinese market share, while domestic seed giants only have a 35% share in China. Excessive diversification is not conducive to development.

So there is a significant gap between China's agriculture and world-class agricultural powers from multiple dimensions, which cannot be changed overnight. The bloody truth and cruel reality need to be gradually alleviated through independent control.

So how did China, as the world's largest food importer, respond to this food war? From the official response, the overall meaning is preventable and controllable. But we still need to be cautious and optimistic about this.

As of December 2022, Heilongjiang and other seven major production areas have acquired a total of 2.67 million tons of soybeans.

A year-on-year decrease of 180000 tons can be clearly concluded through data comparison that while soybean prices continue to rise, China's soybean purchases have also decreased by 180000 tons compared to the same period last year.

The latest report issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations shows that the COVID-19 has affected at least 44 countries in need of external food aid

Only about 5% of countries in the world are able to achieve food self-sufficiency, and there are only over 10 countries with large grain exports.

As the world's largest food importer, China's food supply has entered a dual threat stage

On the one hand, the global epidemic has caused trade disruptions, and on the other hand, it is the potential impact caused by major pests.

From the comparison of agricultural development between China and the United States. From the millennium history of Chinese agriculture. The fundamental purpose of agricultural development in China is to eat, while the fundamental purpose of agricultural development in the United States is capital.

However, due to the lack of agricultural capital and giants who understand the financial market in China, there is also a lack of a complete agricultural database.

When farmers who grow important cash crop such as soybeans and corn are driven out of this market, as a big demand country, we become passive buyers.

In addition, China's labor and land costs are far higher than those of American agriculture, which will become hidden risks and crises in the future under China's food war.

3、 If you control the food, you control everyone

The world's food giant has been in China for 30 years, and a "shocking conspiracy" has quietly occurred by our side, but we have not been able to detect it.

I believe everyone has tried the brand of Golden Dragon Fish Blended Oil, but just like Zhonghua Toothpaste is actually a foreign brand, the behind the scenes boss of Golden Dragon Fish is actually an overseas giant.

The real controller of the golden arowana is the Robert Kuok family of Yihai Kerry Group, whose ancestral home is Fujian, and the richest man in Malaysia was born in Singapore Asia.

In 1987, the Golden Dragon Fish brand of small packaged edible oil was launched, and after several years of development and growth, it left behind COFCO to establish its own portal.

The passive COFCO quickly adjusted its strategy and launched Fulinmen in 1995 to compete.

Robert Kuok, who has a global strategic vision, established a joint venture with ATM, one of the four largest grain merchants in the world, an American giant.

Yihai Group's upstream layout of the industrial chain swept through China's oil extraction plants during the 2002-2003 soybean crisis, becoming the dominant player in China's oil extraction industry.

What is even more worrying is such a giant that controls the national food supply, including not only the Guo family, but also American giants AD, Bangui, Jiaji, and French Louis Duff.

No wonder former US Secretary of State Kissinger once said a famous saying, 'If you control oil, you control the country; if you control food, you control everyone.'.

You should know that these four commonly known as ABCD's four major grain merchants control 80% of global grain trade volume.

In order to overcome the unfavorable situation in recent years, China's planting expansion has begun to shift overseas.

For example, the Chongqing Grain Bureau planted soybeans in Brazil in 2010 and built a grain base in Argentina in 2012.

Listed company Da Beinong obtained approval from the Argentine government in 2019 to start planting and cultivating genetically modified soybeans.

In addition to controlling resources such as trade land, the core seed technology is also almost entirely in the hands of foreign investors.

Fortunately, in the past two years, China successfully acquired the Swiss seed giant through the state-owned enterprise ChemChina Group, and Syngenta successfully caught up with the first tier in the seed industry, second only to the United States and Germany.

Although we are making every effort to break through, under the tactical attack of the upstream seed and downstream finished product industry chain arranged by foreign investment, our current response can only barely achieve the goal of drinking poison to quench thirst.

Looking back at the layout rhythm and plan of ABCD entering China, the impact of dimensionality reduction by world-class capital giants is helpless.

More than 200 million farmers with small umbrellas are no match for them. We call and expect larger international giants to compete.

World capital has been rushing to trade with China since Nixon's visit to China in 1972, with an annual trade volume exceeding 5 billion US dollars and has become one of China's largest buyers.

And we have also established various wholly-owned companies, which have completed the construction of the industrial chain in addition to planting.

In 2006, Louis Duff obtained a domestic corn trade license, and his cotton company in the United States is already the largest cotton supplier in China.

The story of ADM controlling China's rice noodle oil through the golden dragon fish, I believe everyone has heard it clearly. Looking back, it is bound to be cold and shivering all over.

What's even more terrifying is the black history of continuously raising prices for the past 20 years, which is chilling.

This war without gunpowder is starting around us, and the export ban we see is nothing more than a small-scale contact battle. Once triggered, it will be a more tense relationship.

Nowadays, in the face of unfavorable factors such as viruses, geopolitics, and natural disasters, food wars are raging worldwide.

Senior economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said that due to many uncertain factors, people and governments around the world may panic and hoard food. Inflation may be imminent.

A global food crisis may be imminent, but it is not a supply issue. The epidemic has triggered changes in people's behavior regarding food security.

Moreover, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that a global food crisis will erupt within the next three years.

China's soybeans have already fallen, and the three main grains of rice, wheat, and corn are constantly being caught in the chess game of international capital.

How to deal with it calmly in the future is indeed worth everyone's consideration.

epilogue

The Northeast industrial chain provides one-stop services from seed planting, warehousing, and processing, aiming to attract investment for development.

There are numerous cases of local governments secretly introducing international grain merchants, and even offering preferential and convenient conditions.

The international giants' troops have not yet moved, and food and grass have taken the lead. The safety of the country lies in the details. Call for more people to see the truth, call for more voices, and awaken the power of food security.

Perhaps there is only one truth, as the pandemic has allowed more people to see this real world in the past three years. Only by controlling autonomous security can we remain invincible in the future.