未来5年世界VCM需求将以每年4.1%的平均增幅继续增长

未来五年，世界VCM需求将继续以年均4.1%的速度增长

世界PVC需求趋势分析

从全球来看，由于近年来经济复苏带动石化基础材料需求持续增长，包括聚氯乙烯在内的合成材料需求增长迅速。在原油价格高企的影响下，聚氯乙烯的价格也在不断上涨。电石PVC已成为抑制原油路线PVC价格的重要芯片。从目前世界PVC生产工艺来看，对氯乙烯单体（VCM）的需求持续增强。目前全球VCM市场紧缺，

CMAI最新发布的市场报告的结论。造成这种局面的原因是，VCM行业在过去几年的亏损影响了制造商的投资热情。目前，该行业正处于盈利回升期，预计2006年至2007年将有部分新项目开工。

据市场分析，由于需求旺盛和新增产能不足，全球氯乙烯单体价格较年初上涨20%以上。全球氯乙烯开工率比去年提高了88个百分点。随着聚氯乙烯需求的持续增长，预计明年氯乙烯开工率将升至89%以上。

CMAI预测，未来五年，全球VCM需求将继续以年均4.1%的速度增长，这明显高于产能的增长速度。今年，全球VCM产能增长率仅为1.8%，预计2005年为3.3%。新增加的产能仍将集中在东北亚其他地区。由于美国国内生产总值的强劲增长，氯乙烯需求将增长5%-6%。预计2005年和2006年氯乙烯需求增长将减弱。目前，美国VCM制造商维持接近满负荷的生产，以应对市场需求紧张。由于能源价格的不确定性，不少生产企业对新增产能投资仍持谨慎态度，而少量投资扩大产能具有吸引力。

Analysis on the demand trend of PVC in the world

From a global perspective, due to the sustained growth of demand for basic petrochemical materials driven by economic recovery in recent years, the demand for synthetic materials, including PVC, has increased rapidly. Under the influence of high crude oil price, the price of PVC has also been rising. Calcium carbide PVC has become an important chip to curb the price of PVC in crude oil route. From the current world production process of PVC, the demand for vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) continues to strengthen. At present, the global VCM market is in shortage,

The conclusion of the latest market report released by CMAI. The reason for this situation is that the losses of VCM industry in the past few years have affected the investment enthusiasm of manufacturers. At present, the industry is in the period of profit recovery, and some new projects are expected to start from 2006 to 2007.

According to market analysis, due to strong demand and lack of new capacity, vinyl chloride monomer prices around the world have increased by more than 20% since the beginning of the year. The global vinyl chloride operation rate has risen to more than 88% this year, two percentage points higher than last year. As the demand for PVC continues to rise, it is expected that the vinyl chloride operation rate will rise to more than 89% next year.

CMAI predicts that the world VCM demand will continue to grow at an average annual growth rate of 4.1% in the next five years, which is significantly higher than the growth rate of production capacity. This year, the growth rate of global VCM production capacity is only 1.8%, and it is expected to be 3.3% in 2005. The newly increased production capacity is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia, and the supply tension in other regions will still exist. Due to the strong growth of US GDP, VCM demand will grow by 5% - 6%. It is expected that VCM demand growth will weaken in 2005 and 2006. At present, VCM manufacturers in the United States maintain close to full capacity production to cope with the tight market demand. Due to the uncertainty of energy prices, many producers are still cautious about investing in new production capacity, while a small amount of investment to expand production capacity is attractive.

世界对聚氯乙烯的需求趋势分析

　　从全球角度看，由于近几年经济复苏推动基础石化材料的需求持续增长，合成材料其中包括聚氯乙烯需求增加较快，在原油价格居高不下的影响下，PVC的价格也不断走高，电石法聚氯乙烯成为抑制原油路线PVC价格的重要筹码。从目前世界生产PVC的工艺看，对氯乙烯单体(VCM)需求持续走强。目前全球VCM市场已处于短缺状态，

　　美国化学品市场协会(CMAI)最新公布的市场报告得出的结论。造成这种局面的原因在于过去几年VCM行业的亏损影响了生产商的投资积极性，目前该行业正处于盈利恢复期，预计2006~2007年会有部分新建项目开工。

　　据市场人士分析，由于需求强劲而缺乏新增产能，自年初开始全球各地氯乙烯单体价格已上涨了20%以上。全球氯乙烯开工率今年已上升至88%以上，较去年增加了两个百分点，由于PVC需求继续走高，预计明年氯乙烯开工率将升至89%以上。

CMAI预测，未来5年世界VCM需求将以每年4.1%的平均增幅继续增长，明显高于产能增速。今年全球VCM产能增速只有1.8%，2005年预计为3.3%。新增加产能主要集中在东北亚地区，其他地区供应紧张局面将依然存在。由于美国GDP出现强势增长，VCM需求增速将达5%-6%。预计2005和2006年VCM需求增速会有所减弱。目前美国VCM生产商均保持接近全负荷生产来应对市场需求紧张局面。由于能源价格不确定性，许多生产商对投资新产能仍持审慎态度，而进行少量投资扩大产能措施则具有一定吸引力。