The Myanmar military took over power for half a year: calm under the triple crisis

The Myanmar military took over power for half a year: calm under the triple crisis

Wearing two layers of medical masks or an N95 mask, then wearing goggles, and wearing airtight protective clothing, the whole person is wrapped tightly, and will not take off at any time after going out... It broke out again in Myanmar At the moment of the new crown epidemic, Chen Shuyuan, a managing partner of DXN (Myanmar) Law Firm, has gradually worked out a set of difficult "epidemic prevention rules." Not only that, in order to avoid removing the mask during the haircut, he simply shaved off all the troubles at home.

The epidemic situation in Myanmar is severe, and such protective equipment is Chen Shuyuan's daily necessity. The epidemic situation in Myanmar is severe, and such protective equipment is Chen Shuyuan's daily necessity.

　　 In early July, when the third wave of the new crown epidemic raged in Myanmar, Chen Shuyuan, who had been rooted in this land for 6 years, made a "risky" decision due to work needs-returning to Myanmar from China.

At that time, Myanmar was being attacked by a variety of mutant strains including delta. The number of new confirmed cases and deaths in a single day continued to set the highest record since the outbreak, and the epidemic has spread to more than 90% of the country. . The UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews also warned that Myanmar may become the next "super spreader" of the new crown virus.

　　 However, in the face of this unprecedented challenge, Myanmar society has been unable to coordinate and unify all forces to fight the epidemic. Since the sudden change in the political situation on February 1 this year, party games, armed confrontations, tensions between ethnic minorities and dominant ethnic groups, as well as the conceptual deviation between Myanmar military leaders and the new generation of young people, have deepened Myanmar society. Torn. More importantly, the people who have been engulfed by the struggle are inevitably caught in the vortex of political, economic, and epidemic crises.

　　 Now, half a year has passed since the Burmese military took over the power. After several violent ups and downs, Burmese society seems to be calming down. However, under the fragile calm maintained by the lockdown order and the home order, the undercurrent is still there.

　　 The military has a firm foothold on the land

On February 1, a turning point in the history of Myanmar’s national development-the military’s armored vehicles drove onto the streets of the capital Naypyidaw and Yangon, the country’s largest city, in the early morning, detaining the leader of the Democratic League in the general election in November last year. The state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Min, who achieved an overwhelming victory in China, and other senior leaders of the Democratic League. Subsequently, the military declared Myanmar a state of emergency and took over state power.

On February 2, 2021 local time, in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, the Burmese military set up roadblocks to block the road to the parliament. Surging image. On February 2, 2021 local time, in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, the Burmese military set up roadblocks to block the road to the parliament. Surging image map

　　 The military’s return to power means that the political transformation process of Myanmar, which has only experienced two democratically elected governments and has not yet survived the democratic “ten-year itch,” has returned to its original point.

　　 However, from February 1 to the present, the game and struggle between the military that has regained power and the NLD that has lost power has never stopped, and has gradually moved from overall peace to violence and extremes. It was not until the beginning of July that the city lockdown order and the stay-at-home order were issued one after another under the epidemic that enabled the military to consolidate its regime and gain a firm foothold.

　　 Within the first two months after the political change, the "Citizen Disobedience Movement" (CDM) that opposed the military's takeover of state power emerged in many large cities, including Yangon and Mandalay. Although the protests generally adhered to the principles of non-violence and peace, as tensions intensified, more than a hundred protesters died in the conflict.

　　Growing up in a period of political transformation, the "Generation Z" Burmese youth Min and the Chinese Burmese Wu Shenglin, who had a vague impression of the military government, participated in many demonstrations against the military's takeover of power in February and March. In their view, the NLD is a government that represents the will of the people, and the rebels are facilitating "democracy" and more opportunities for their own future.

　　 However, the enthusiasm for demonstrations did not last long. The two young people have not participated in protests since April. Wu Shenglin told The Paper that this is mainly because of concerns about the outbreak of the epidemic again and the health of family members. Min stated that funding for the "Citizen Disobedience Movement" is limited and the scale of protests has shrunk. At present, only some large cities have occasionally initiated sporadic protests. To this end, Min also donated money to the organizers of the "Citizen Disobedience Movement" and supported them on social media.

 On February 1, 2021, local time, Bangkok, Thailand, Burmese people living in Thailand held a demonstration holding a portrait of Burmese leader Aung San Suu Kyi to protest the military's detention of Aung San Suu Kyi and others. Surging image picture on February 1, 2021 local time, Bangkok, Thailand. Burmese living in Thailand held a demonstration holding a portrait of Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi to protest the military's detention of Aung San Suu Kyi and others. Surging image map

　　 At a time when the non-violent protests of the people were declining, the China Democratic League strengthened its political organization structure to gather popular support. On April 16, the "Committee of Representatives of the Federal Parliament" led by the Democratic League announced that it would "start anew"-the establishment of the so-called "new government"-the "National Unity Government" (NUG), and the establishment of the military on February 1. The "State Administration Commission" (SAC) has formed a trend of confrontation, and the two sides recognize each other as a "terrorist organization."

　　 It is worth noting that the "National Unity Government" also announced the formation of the "People's Defense Force" (PDF) on May 5. During this period, many unidentified civilian armed groups have emerged in Myanmar, and their confrontation with the military has also shown a trend of extreme and violence.

　　According to the "Diplomat" magazine, since the end of May, targeted assassinations such as bombings and shooting at military personnel (soldiers, police and informants) have become increasingly common. Mu Ziwenwen (pseudonym), a representative of a Chinese state-owned enterprise in Myanmar, also told The Paper that on July 7, 9, and 10, explosions occurred in the power bureaus of various towns and districts in Yangon. The explosion is responsible.

In response to this, Zhao Jinxiang, associate professor of the Asian College of Beijing Foreign Studies University, analyzed by Peng Mei News that although violence in Myanmar has never stopped since the military took over the power, the main implementation of violence is gradually changing: from the military in March to May. The "People’s Defense Forces" side in June and June. Zhao Jin also emphasized that some Western media reports are very one-sided, only emphasizing the violent actions carried out by the military, while ignoring the terrorist actions taken by the "People's National Defense Forces." At the same time, the Burmese media "The Irrawaddy" in early July quoted the views of military personnel and published an article saying that the recent violent attacks were led by members of the "People's Defense Forces".

　　 With the third wave of the epidemic in early July, the lockdown order and the stay-at-home order have been implemented, and the conflict between the military and civilian armed groups has temporarily come to an end. Looking back at the six months in which the military was in power, Li Bin (pseudonym), the principal of the Myanmar Chinese School, summed up to The Paper, “From February’s response to domestic demonstrations, to March, April, and May with terrorist violence. Confrontation and social unrest, it was not until July that the'fire' in Burmese society was brought under control, and soldiers basically gained a firm foothold in the country."

　　 Democratic League gains support in the cloud

　　 Li Bin explained that because Burmese society is heavily influenced by Western education, there are still many Burmese people, especially doctors, university professors and other intellectuals who tend to support the Democratic League. Prior to this, both medical staff and university faculty played an important role in the "civil disobedience movement."

　　 At the same time, although the Myanmar Election Commission issued an announcement on July 26, announcing that because the total number of election fraud cases in the whole year exceeded 11.3 million, the results of the 2020 general election were officially abolished. However, in Li Bin's view, even so, the current public opinion in Myanmar society is torn very seriously.

　　 Li Bin also quoted a popular phrase in the current Burmese society to describe this state of torn public opinion: the military wins on the land, and the Democratic League wins on the "cloud." Wu Shenglin also feels the same about this: "The voice of the China Democratic League is rarely heard in the real world, but it is extremely fierce on the Internet, and a group of'keyboard men' have emerged."

　　In fact, since the sudden change of the political situation in Myanmar on February 1, cyberspace has become a "parallel battlefield" where the opposition and the Myanmar army compete for supporters, transmit information, and control the right to speak in the development of the domestic situation. When the protests of the people subsided from the real world, the "cloud" social media became their main front for venting their dissatisfaction with the military.

On February 6, 2021 local time, in Yangon, Myanmar, tens of thousands of people held a demonstration in Yangon. Surging image map

　　 In contrast, the "National Unity Government" led by the China Democratic League has "attracted countless fans" on the Internet.

　　 According to Zhao Jin’s observation, the main function of the “national unity government” is to agitate for public opinion on social media and gain support from the international community. This trend can also be seen from the top tweet issued by the "National Unity Government" on July 20. The tweet reads: "Urgent call for assistance to the people of Myanmar in the escalating humanitarian crisis of the new crown epidemic, the people of this country Facing an unprecedented national crisis, we must face both a failed military coup and the impact of a new wave of epidemics."

　　 However, this government that exists in the "cloud" also has natural limitations. In Min's view, the "national unity government" only has authority on the Internet, but it has no right to speak in real life. "A person living in a rural Myanmar may not know anything about this cloud government, but the military does not know anything about it. It really exists in reality."

　　 In addition, the cyberspace is still full of misleading and indistinguishable rumors. Wu Shenglin told The Paper that he had previously seen news that the military had deliberately planted a bomb and an explosion was about to occur somewhere. In fact, he was at the so-called "crisis scene" at the time, but the explosion did not occur, only vehicles. error occured.

　　The people are struggling in the "triple crisis"

　　 If it is said that in this “battle” of political changes, the military seized the land and the Democratic League won in the “cloud,” then the vast majority of the Burmese people would undoubtedly be the biggest losers.

"Since the outbreak of the epidemic last year, people’s lives have been greatly affected. In February this year, Myanmar experienced political turmoil. Now, the third wave of the epidemic is coming. The triple crises of the epidemic, the economy, and politics have followed one after another. It can be said that there is no chance to breathe." Mu Ziwen, who has worked in Myanmar for 10 years, confessed to The Paper.

　　In the daily life of the people, the impact of multiple crises can be seen everywhere. Mu Ziwenwen said that Myanmar’s financial system is still not functioning normally, and people have to queue up to withdraw limited cash from the bank’s ATM machines every day, which also prevents his company from paying wages to Burmese employees as usual. In this regard, World Bank analysis pointed out that employee strikes, suspension of business, and network controls have reduced market liquidity and restricted the development of the banking industry.

　　 In addition, prices have risen astonishingly high. Mu Ziwenwen contrasted that the price of an egg in Yangon at the beginning of this year was between 100 kyats and 150 kyats (about 0.5 yuan), while the value of an egg in Yangon has soared to around 600 kyats ( Approximately RMB 2.3). Min said with emotion, this is a price that ordinary people cannot afford.

 On April 29, 2021, local time, Yangon, Myanmar, people lined up near the ATM to withdraw money. Surging image. Local time, April 29, 2021, Yangon, Myanmar. People line up near the ATMs to withdraw money. Surging image map

　　 The almost paralyzed financial system and high prices reflect the difficulties of Myanmar's economic development. The World Bank stated on July 26 that due to the social unrest following the political changes and the third wave of the new crown epidemic, Myanmar’s economy will decline by 18% in fiscal year 2021 (October 2020 to September 2021). By the beginning of 2022, Myanmar’s economy will decline by 18%. The proportion of people living below the poverty line "may double or even more" compared to 2019.

　　 At the same time, the downward trend of the economy also directly affects the job market in Myanmar. The International Labour Organization stated on July 19 that Myanmar lost approximately 1.2 million jobs in the second quarter of this year. The current total unemployment rate in Myanmar has reached 15%, and about 3.2 million people are out of work. As the industry with the most workers and the largest industrial base in Myanmar, the employment situation in the apparel industry is not optimistic. Shi Kun, chairman of the Myanmar-China Textile and Apparel Association, told The Paper that on March 14 this year,

After 　　, about 20% of garment factories were shut down or laid off, and the number of employees directly affected by them may be between 50,000 and 80,000.

　　 More importantly, the tearing of public opinion under the political changes has become the biggest obstacle to Myanmar's response to the third wave of the new crown epidemic, and this will further aggravate the economic decline. At present, the country's low vaccination rate of 3.22% may reflect the distrust of the people in the military from the side. Mu Ziwenwen claimed that his colleague had received the first dose of the vaccine during the NLD administration, but after the military took over the power, he refused to receive the second dose. "Although this is a way for him to show his attitude. But he has also experienced it. A painful ideological struggle, not only to save lives, but also to firmly oppose the military."

　　 Out of doubts about the professionalism of military medical personnel's vaccination, Min believes that not being vaccinated may be a better choice. Min recalled a photo of a military medical staff vaccinating people before: The medical staff themselves had not taken measures to prevent the epidemic, and they did not even know how to vaccinate the people correctly, and the vaccines were not stored at the required temperature.

On July 6, 2021, local time, in Sittwe, Myanmar, volunteers wearing protective clothing moved the coffin of the new crown patient to the cemetery. Surging image. On July 6, 2021 local time, in Sittwe, Myanmar, volunteers wearing protective clothing moved the coffin of the new crown patient to the cemetery. Surging image map

　　Under the storm of crisis, where will Myanmar's future go? Chen Shuyuan listed the three major challenges facing the Burmese army: weathering the new crown crisis, finding a balance in the international community, and restoring domestic political, military, and economic development. However, in Min's view, as long as the military is in charge of power for one day, the country's health, economic, and education systems will continue to stagnate or even regress. Wu Shenglin, who is also the "Generation Z", is not so pessimistic. He only hopes that the country will not return to the state of childhood economic blockade-even commodities like Coke are in short supply.

　　 Mu Ziwenwen always believes that the political enthusiasm of the Burmese people will fade away and life will eventually return to peace. Li Bin also looked forward to saying that the most difficult months of March, April, and May have passed, and life will develop for the better.

"What Myanmar needs is not a simple regime change, but a more complete transformation." The historian Den Min Uh wrote in his book "The Unfinished Road to Myanmar". In Myanmar, many issues are more than mere democratic issues. More importantly, such as ethnic conflicts, economic depression, and the poor at the bottom.