US media article: Iran is losing interest in contact with the West
Reference News Network reported on August 7th The American "Wall Street Journal" website published an article entitled "Iran's New President Ibrahim Leahy Inauguration, Western Uneasiness Increases" on August 5th, the full text of which is excerpted as follows:
After Leahy was sworn in as president, all branches of Iran’s power were under the control of hardliners for the first time in many years. The inauguration of the new president strengthened the power of hardliners and made people increasingly worried that relations between the Islamic Republic and the West might deteriorate.
Leahy’s inauguration on the 5th is destined to consolidate the power of Khamenei’s hardline loyal supporters, and at this moment Iran and the West are trying to restore an agreement that limits Tehran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
In his first speech after assuming the presidency, Leahy made reconciliation arguments from time to time, emphasizing the importance of ensuring free trade between Iran and the rest of the world. He said: "We will support any diplomatic plan that can achieve this goal."
But Leahy also warned foreign countries not to get involved in regional disputes, saying that his victory in the June election represented a demand from voters to counter "excessive demands made by the arrogant and authoritarian powers in the world."
He said: "Pushing pressure and sanctions policies will not make Iran abandon its pursuit of its legal rights, including the right to development."
The most recent Iranian presidents, regardless of their political leanings, usually clearly set out their policy priorities, but the supreme leader always has the final say on major national affairs, such as the nuclear program.
Analysts say that as the 82-year-old Khamenei gets older and Iran’s economy hit hard by the sanctions is facing increasing pressure, Khamenei seems to have shifted to focus on reducing infighting and maintaining what he believes. The creed of the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
Senem Wakil, deputy director of the Middle East Program at the Royal Institute of International Studies, said: "Khamenei is making a bet. For 30 years, he has been a balancer. Now he just needs to get things done."
Vakil said: "I see Leahy as Khamenei's spokesperson. For the first time in 30 years, Khamenei has his perfect incarnation in the administration."
The new Iranian government has a series of tasks to be carried out, but the top priority is the re-planning of the nuclear agreement.
The nuclear agreement signed in 2015 eased sanctions on Iran. But in 2018, the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear agreement and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Unable to sell oil, the Iranian economy was hit hard and the exchange rate plummeted.
Khamenei recently accused the outgoing government of placing too much emphasis on diplomacy. He said last week: “It’s useless to believe in the West because they won’t help us. They will attack whenever they get the chance.”
After the Biden administration came to power, efforts to get the United States to return to nuclear negotiations are currently at a deadlock.
Khamenei and Leahy both support getting nuclear negotiations back on track. However, the negotiations that began in Vienna in April were blocked due to Iran's power transition and the conflict between the United States and Iran.
There are serious differences between the United States and Iran on lifting sanctions and ensuring Iran’s compliance with the agreement.
Given that Leahy is Khamenei’s middleman, holding talks with Iran may be more difficult for the West than with his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. Even if Iran reaches an agreement with the United States and the West, the relevant agreement is likely to be extremely limited in content, and it may also face conflicts between the two sides in implementation. An early indicator is whether Leahy will appoint another hardliner as foreign minister.
Mahsha Rush, an expert on Iran’s security strategy at the National Strategic Research Institute of the National Defense University, said: “Leahy’s election shows that in the future Iran is less and less interested in meaningful contacts with the West.”
Different governments in the Western world also have differences in their policies towards Iran. According to diplomats, the European Union sent one of its senior officials, Enrique Mora, to Leahy’s inauguration. Mora participated in coordinating the nuclear negotiations in Vienna. However, the EU's move also caused friction among the member states, and some countries expressed opposition to it.
At Leahy’s inauguration, Mora was sitting in the second row, behind Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic “jihad” and the Hezbollah senior officials. All three organizations are classified as terrorist organizations by the European Union.
美媒文章:伊朗正失去与西方接触兴趣
参考消息网8月7日报道 美国《华尔街日报》网站8月5日发表题为《伊朗新总统易卜拉欣·莱希就职,西方不安增加》的文章,全文摘编如下:
在莱希宣誓就任总统后,伊朗所有的权力分支都处于强硬派的控制之下,这还是多年来的首次。新总统的就职加强了强硬派的权力,并令人们愈发担心这个伊斯兰共和国与西方的关系可能恶化。
莱希5日的就职注定会巩固哈梅内伊的强硬派忠实支持者的权力,而此刻伊朗和西方正试图恢复一项限制德黑兰核能力、以换取解除经济制裁的协议。
在担任总统后的首次讲话中,莱希不时发出和解的论调,强调确保伊朗与世界其他国家进行自由贸易的重要性。他说:“我们将支持任何能实现这一目标的外交计划。”
但莱希也警告外国不要卷入地区争端,称他在6月份的选举中获胜代表了选民的一种要求,即反击“世界上傲慢和专制的大国提出的过度要求”。
他说:“施压和制裁政策不会让伊朗放弃追求其合法权利,包括发展权。”
伊朗最近几任总统,不管其政治倾向如何,通常都明确提出了自己的政策重点,不过最高领袖在国家的重大事务——比如核计划——上总是拥有最终决定权。
分析人士说,随着现年82岁的哈梅内伊年事日高、伊朗受到制裁重创的经济面临越来越大的压力,哈梅内伊似乎转而把重点放在了减少内斗和维护他所认为的1979年伊斯兰革命的信条上。
英国皇家国际问题研究所中东项目副主任塞纳姆·瓦基勒说:“哈梅内伊正在投下赌注。30年来,他一直是一个平衡者。现在他只需要把事情做好就行。”
瓦基勒说:“我将莱希视作哈梅内伊的代言人。30年来,哈梅内伊首次在行政部门中有了自己的完美化身。”
伊朗新政府有一系列工作要开展,但高居首位的是重新规划核协议。
2015年签署的核协议放松了对伊朗的制裁。但2018年特朗普政府退出了核协议,并重新对伊朗实施制裁。由于无法出售石油,伊朗经济遭到很大冲击,汇率大跌。
哈梅内伊最近指责即将离任的政府过于看重外交。他上周说:“相信西方是没有用的,因为他们不会帮助我们,他们一有机会就会发动攻击。”
拜登政府上台之后,让美国重返核谈判的努力目前陷入僵局。
哈梅内伊和莱希都支持将核谈判重回正轨。但是4月开始在维也纳进行的谈判由于伊朗的权力过渡以及美伊矛盾而受到阻挠。
美国和伊朗在解除制裁以及确保伊方遵守协议方面存在严重分歧。
鉴于莱希是哈梅内伊的中间人,与伊朗举行会谈对西方来说可能比与他的前任哈桑·鲁哈尼会谈更加棘手。即使伊朗与美国和西方达成一致,相关协议在内容上很可能极其有限,在执行上也可能面临双方的冲突。一个早期的风向标是莱希是否会任命另一位强硬派人士出任外长。
美国国防大学国家战略研究所研究伊朗安全战略的专家马赫莎·鲁希说:“莱希当选表明,未来伊朗对与西方进行有意义的接触越来越不感兴趣。”
西方世界不同政府之间在对伊朗政策方面也存在分歧。据外交人士透露,欧盟派出了其高级官员之一恩里克·莫拉参加莱希的就职典礼。莫拉参与协调了维也纳举行的核谈判。但欧盟此举在成员国中也引发了摩擦,一些国家对此表示反对。
在莱希的就职典礼上,莫拉坐在第二排,位于哈马斯、巴勒斯坦伊斯兰“圣战组织”以及真主党高官身后。这三个组织都被欧盟列为恐怖组织。
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