Signs of the third wave of outbreaks in India appear: R0 values >1 in multiple states

Signs of the third wave of outbreaks in India appear: R0 values >1 in multiple states

On August 6, 2021 local time, in the Indian state of Assam, people are ready to leave by boat after being vaccinated with the new crown vaccine. People's Vision Pictured on August 6, 2021 local time, in Assam, India, people are ready to leave by boat after being vaccinated with the new crown vaccine. People's vision

Signs of the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in India have appeared in at least 10 states. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and other states in the south have reported an R0 value (the number of people infected per infected person). Rising, which means that every person infected with the virus will spread the virus to more people than in the past 3 months.

　　According to the "India Express" report on August 11, the Indian government admitted on the 10th that the R0 value of certain states rose above 1 "deserving attention."

　　 According to a report by Singapore’s “Straits Times” on August 11, the R0 value is an important tool for examining the epidemic and spread of the new coronavirus. The current average R0 value in India is 1.01, which means that every person infected with the virus will transmit the virus to 1.01 more people. In May, the second wave of the epidemic in India, the R0 value rose to 1.4, and fell to 0.9 a month later. The current R0 value has risen above 1 again, causing medical experts to worry, because it shows that the infection rate is rising.

　　 At present, Madhya Pradesh has the highest R0 value, reaching 1.31, followed by Himachal Pradesh (1.3) and Nagaland (1.09). The R0 value of 1.3 means that 10 people will spread the virus to 13 people, and these 13 people will spread the virus to another 16 to 17 people.

　　Samiran Panda, a top expert of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), believes that “the increase in R0 may be an early signal of the third wave of the epidemic.”

Panda also pointed out that Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and other states that were relatively lightly affected by the second wave of the epidemic, as well as the Indian-controlled Kashmir region, this time the R0 value appeared to be high, which may indicate The third wave of epidemics may have different characteristics from the second wave.

Swaminathan, the chief scientist of the World Health Organization, told New Delhi TV that as more Indians are vaccinated and new treatment facilities are still operating in many states, the third wave of the epidemic "will not be as destructive as the second wave." ".

印度第三波疫情暴发迹象显现：多个邦R0值 >1

当地时间2021年8月6日，印度阿萨姆邦，民众接种新冠疫苗后准备坐船离开。人民视觉  图当地时间2021年8月6日，印度阿萨姆邦，民众接种新冠疫苗后准备坐船离开。人民视觉  图

　　印度暴发第三波新冠疫情的迹象已在至少10个邦显现，南部的泰米尔纳德、卡纳塔克、喀拉拉等邦都报告了 R0值（每名染疫者传染的人数）的上升，这意味着比起过去3个月，每个感染病毒的人都会将病毒传染给更多的人。

　　据《印度快报》8月11日报道，印度政府10日承认，某些邦R0值升高到1以上“值得引起重点关注”。

　　据新加坡《海峡时报》8月11日报道，R0值是检视新冠病毒流行和传播的重要工具。印度目前的平均R0值为1.01，这表明每个感染病毒的人会再把病毒传染给1.01个人。在印度第二波疫情大流行的5月，R0值上升到1.4，一个月后又下降到0.9。目前R0值再度上升到1以上引发了医学专家的担忧，因为这显示感染率正在上升。

　　眼下R0值最高的是中央邦，达到1.31，其次是喜马偕尔邦（1.3）和那加兰邦（1.09）。R0值1.3意味着10个人会把病毒传播给13个人，这13个人再把病毒传播给另外16到17个人。

　　印度医学研究理事会（ICMR）顶级专家萨米兰·潘达（Samiran Panda）认为：“R0值上升可能是第三波疫情的早期信号。”

　　潘达还指出，在第二波疫情中受灾相对较轻的泰米尔纳德、卡纳塔克、喀拉拉等邦，以及印控克什米尔地区，此次R0值却显得偏高，这或许表明第三波疫情可能具有与第二波不同的特点。

　　世界卫生组织首席科学家斯瓦米纳坦向新德里电视台表示，由于更多印度人接种了疫苗，新建的治疗机构也仍在很多邦运转，第三波疫情“不会像第二波那么具有破坏性”。