Singapore\'s 4G leadership race: Will it be Ong, Wong or Chan?

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Singapore's 4G leadership race: Will it be Ong, Wong or Chan?

SINGAPORE — The race to become the successor to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong appears to be down to three men: Education Minister Ong Ye Kung, 51, Education Minister Lawrence Wong, 48, and Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing, 51.

Sources in the People's Action Party (PAP) and academics, while divided on the frontrunners, agreed that the process, which will have repercussions for the next election, needs to be carefully managed. A Cabinet reshuffle scheduled for next week, which will fill the all-important Finance Minister portfolio, is expected to shed more light on who will be Lee's heir apparent.

Singapore's well-oiled leadership succession was abruptly brought to a halt last Thursday (8 April), when Deputy PM Heng Swee Keat stepped aside as leader of the Republic's fourth-generation leadership team and designated successor to Lee. Heng, 59, cited his age and the disruptions caused by the pandemic as the key reasons for his decision at a media conference.

In response, Heng's 4G colleagues said in a statement that his decisions had been an "unexpected turn of events" and said they would need "more time" to select another leader. Lee said at the same conference that the process of choosing his successor would take "more than a few months", and "should not take more than a couple of years", with a clear outcome before the next general election.

Sentiment in the PAP

Heng Swee Keat et al. in a park: Heng Swee Keat answers the questions of press members after meeting residents on 1 July, 2020. (PHOTO: Zakaria Zainal/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)© Provided by Yahoo News Heng Swee Keat answers the questions of press members after meeting residents on 1 July, 2020. (PHOTO: Zakaria Zainal/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

On Monday, a Bloomberg report, citing high-ranking PAP members, said the leadership race was expected to come down to Ong and Wong. An ongoing Yahoo News Singapore poll on readers' preferred choice as 4G leader, which has attracted more than 23,000 votes as of Wednesday evening, currently has Ong in the lead with 29 per cent, followed by Wong at 16 per cent. Chan garnered just 9 per cent of the vote.

Similar online polls such as that of social news site Mothership, with some 13,700 votes as of Wednesday evening, has Wong narrowly in the lead at 37 per cent and Ong at 35 per cent, with Chan also in third at 23 per cent.

Former Ang Mo Kio Member of Parliament Inderjit Singh told Yahoo News Singapore that the process of choosing Lee's successor has been complicated by the lack of "a clear superstar candidate", leading to the need for "a cohesive and strong team" instead of one strong person.

Noting that Heng's departure took many of the party cadres by surprise, given that succession planning has historically been done with very little surprises, he said, "I believe the cadres will want to see the decision made on who replaces Mr Heng as soon as possible. It is important that the PAP continues to look strong and organised."

He added, "If we take too long, we risk looking like we are in disarray."

Among rank and file party members, Chan and Ong are seen as the leading contenders, according to one well-placed source. The former is regarded as a strict military man who is "aggressively pushing" to be the leader of the 4G team, while the latter impressed with his leadership of his Sembawang GRC team at GE2020, the source said.

"By all accounts, the two men don’t get along. One would not be happy to be subordinate to the other," said the source. "The two of them are neither that brilliant nor objectionable. They are about the same. The 4G are just a very uninspiring lot."

Wong, who has impressed with his work as co-chair of the multi-ministry taskforce on COVID-19, has surprised party members with his rapid ascent and does not trigger "strong opinions", the source added.

Race to the Istana

a giraffe standing in front of a fence: Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung, who officiated the launch of the Changi Airport Connector on Sunday (11 October), posing with a Tyrannosaurus Rex display. (PHOTO: Dhany Osman / Yahoo News Singapore)© Provided by Yahoo News Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung, who officiated the launch of the Changi Airport Connector on Sunday (11 October), posing with a Tyrannosaurus Rex display. (PHOTO: Dhany Osman / Yahoo News Singapore)

Associate Professor of Law Eugene Tan of the Singapore Management University, agreed that the trio are the frontrunners, noting that they are among the most experienced of the 4G leaders in terms of Cabinet experience. Given that Heng's departure is an "own goal", the saga has raised the legitimate question of whether the 4G leaders can consensually pick the right person to lead them, the government, and the country.

Prof Tan added that the way the leadership race is conducted will heavily impact public perceptions of the party, and must not descend into a divisive contest. "Competition is to be expected but it must be healthy, clarifying, and unifying. Anything less than that will not augur well for the party, especially when the 4G is looking vulnerable."

When asked why the selection process is taking so long, Prof Tan pointed out that the strategic environment, exacerbated by the ongoing pandemic, has evolved considerably since 2018, when Heng was chosen. Key considerations include who can be the talisman for the PAP at the next election, and which 4G leader can complement Lee's successor.

"More time is needed simply because the bottomline is that the 4G must get it right this time – there is no alternative. If the successor wins poorly in the next GE, the 4G and the party cannot undo their selection without irreparable damage to them, and Singapore," said Prof Tan.

Separately, Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore was reticent about anointing any frontrunners, pointing out that the process of choosing a party leader remains a mystery since the PAP does not have an open leadership election.

For instance, there is little information on who gets nominated to run for different positions on the PAP’s Central Executive Committee (CEC), even if the vote for CEC members by cadres is public knowledge. Candidates also do not run public campaigns where they lay out positions and seek support.

This creates uncertainty for many Singaporeans, said Prof Chong. "Such conditions are likely to spur unease and speculation until such time more Singaporeans become comfortable with uncertainty and leadership contests."

新加坡的4G领导力竞赛：是Ong，Wong还是Chan？

新加坡—成为李显龙总理继任者的竞赛似乎只有三人：51岁的教育部长On Ye Ye Kong，48岁的教育部长Lawrence Wong和51岁的贸易和工业部长Chan Chun Sing。

人民行动党（PAP）和学者的消息来源虽然排在前列，但都认为该过程将对下届大选产生影响，因此需要仔细管理。计划于下周进行的内阁改组将填补最重要的财政部长职位，这将使更多人了解李显明的继承人。

上周四（4月8日），新加坡副总理亨瑞·基特（Heng Swee Keat）辞职，担任共和国第四代领导班子的领导人，并指定李的继任者。现年59岁的亨恩（ Heng）指出，他的年龄和大流行所造成的破坏是他在媒体会议上做出决定的关键原因。

对此，Heng的4G同事在一份声明中表示，他的决定是“意外的转折”，并说他们将需要“更多时间”来选择另一位领导者。李在同次会议上说，choosing选继任者的过程将“花费数月以上”，“不应超过两年”，在下届大选中之前将有明确的结果。

PAP中的情绪

彭博社周一在一份报告中援引高级人民行动党成员的话说，领导层的竞争预计将落到王和王之间。雅虎新闻新加坡正在进行的一项民意调查显示，读者是首选的4G领导者，截至周三晚上，该选票已吸引超过23,000票，目前以Ong领先，占29％，其次是Wong，占16％。Chan仅获得了9％的选票。

类似的在线民意测验，例如社交新闻网站《母舰》（Mothership）的投票，截至周三晚已获得约13,700票，黄光裕以37％的微弱优势位居榜首，翁以35％的微弱优势位居榜首，陈也以23％的票数位居第三。

前Ang Mo Kio国会议员Inderjit Singh告诉新加坡雅虎新闻社，由于缺乏“明确的超级巨星候选人”，选择李的继任者的过程变得复杂，导致需要一支“凝聚力强的团队”而不是一支强大的团队。人。

鉴于长期以来，继任计划几乎没有惊奇地完成，亨的离任使许多党的干部感到惊讶，他说：“我相信这些干部将希望看到关于谁取代亨先生的决定。人民行动党必须继续保持强大有组织的地位。”

他补充说：“如果时间太长，我们可能会冒着混乱的危险。”

据一位知情人士透露，在普通党员中，Chan和Ong被视为主要竞争者。消息人士称，前者被视为严格的军人，正在“积极推动”成为4G团队的负责人，而后者则对他在GE2020的Sembawang GRC团队的领导印象深刻。