近几年来全球管材市场需求旺盛产能大幅增长

近年来，全球管材市场需求旺盛，生产能力大幅提升

2006年，全球PVC和MPP市场需求量将达到3200万吨，增长率为6%。亚洲市场需求增长率将达到7%左右，印度增长率将达到12%。北美的需求增长率预计为3.4%，中东的需求增长率预计为6%，欧洲的需求增长率预计为2%。据估计，到2009年，聚氯乙烯需求的年增长率约为4%。2007年，受建筑需求疲软影响，北美利润下滑，而欧洲建筑市场需求旺盛，MPP市场有所好转。不过，受亚洲产能扩张影响，PVC生产利润可能停滞不前，尤其是在中国。

近年来，全球聚氯乙烯需求和开工率见表3。由于产能的大幅增长，我国PVC和MPP动力管道的开工率将明显低于全球平均水平。由于北美缺乏主要生产能力，PVC的开工率将明显高于全球平均水平，约90%。但据估计，全球聚氯乙烯的开工率将接近85%，并将持续到2009年。

图表3：历年全球PVC需求增长和运营率

2002年2003年2004年2005年2006年

全球需求率5%1.60%4.30%-6%

北美需求6%-1.80%2.40%3%3-5%

全球运营率85%90%84-85%

北美作业率90%-90%

（1） 北美PVC和MPP市场

北美PVC市场需求与建筑市场密切相关。PVC总量的75%用于建筑和住宅。然而，去年建筑市场的放缓抑制了PVC市场。2006年第四季度的聚氯乙烯市场是五年来最糟糕的一个季度。9月前PVC需求下降12%，10月和11月达到14%，降幅较大。一般来说，住房和住宅建筑对聚氯乙烯的需求下降了2%-7%。随着住房建设需求的低迷，去年以来，北美PVC价格一直呈逐步下降趋势，从2006年初的61美分/磅到今年年初的54美分/磅，年平均价格为58美分/磅。在2007年的头两个月，它每磅下降了2美分。

2006年，美国PVC和MPP动力管道的需求量为653万吨，比2005年下降3%。硬管和管件消耗了PVC总量的46%，其他挤出材料消耗了35%。由于房地产市场需求下降，美国大部分PVC制造商去年降低了开工率，PVC利润也有所下降，但幅度小于价格下降幅度。虽然乙烯和氯气的生产成本在降低，但由于产量大，PVC的利润仍然很低。软质聚氯乙烯比硬聚氯乙烯受到的影响更大，因为就硬制品市场而言，市政用大口径管材的数量要多于小口径管材，而且市政应用并没有像住宅市场那样受到市场需求疲软的直接影响。美国住房需求周期的下降趋势将持续超过预期，预计将在2007年上半年达到最低点。此外，国内产能的增加和亚洲产能扩张流的到来也将影响PVC市场。

In 2006, the global market demand for PVC and MPP will reach 32 million tons, with a growth rate of 6%. The growth rate of Asian market demand will reach about 7%, with India's growth rate reaching 12%. The growth rate of demand in North America is expected to be 3.4%, that in the Middle East is expected to be 6%, and that in Europe is expected to be 2%. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of PVC demand will be about 4% by 2009. In 2007, affected by weak construction demand, North American profits declined, while European construction market demand was strong, and MPP market improved. However, affected by capacity expansion in Asia, PVC production profit may stagnate, especially in China.

In recent years, the global demand and operating rate of PVC are shown in Table 3. Due to the substantial growth of production capacity, the operation rate of PVC and MPP power pipes in China will be significantly lower than the global average. Due to the lack of major production capacity in North America, the operation rate of PVC will be significantly higher than the global average, about 90%. However, it is estimated that the operation rate of PVC in the world will be close to 85% and will continue to 2009.

Chart 3: Global PVC demand growth and operation rate over the years

Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Global demand rate 5% 1.60% 4.30% - 6%

North American demand 6% - 1.80% 2.40% 3% 3-5%

Global operating rate 85% 90% 84-85%

North American operating rate 90% - 90%

（1） PVC and MPP market in North America

The demand of PVC market in North America is closely related to the construction market. 75% of the total amount of PVC is used in construction and housing applications. However, the slowdown of construction market last year restrained the PVC market. The PVC market in the fourth quarter of 2006 was the worst quarter in five years. The demand for PVC decreased by 12% before September, and reached 14% in October and November, with a large decrease. Generally, the demand for PVC for housing and residential buildings decreased by 2% - 7%. With the downturn of housing construction demand, PVC prices in North America have been in a gradual downward trend since last year, from 61 cents / pound at the beginning of 2006 to 54 cents / pound at the beginning of this year, with an average annual price of 58 cents / pound. In the first two months of 2007, it fell by 2 cents per pound.

In 2006, the demand for PVC and MPP power pipes in the United States was 6.53 million tons, 3% lower than that in 2005. Hard pipes and fittings consume 46% of the total amount of PVC, and other extrusion consumes 35%. Due to the decline in demand in the housing market, most PVC manufacturers in the United States reduced their operating rates last year, and PVC profits also decreased, but the range was smaller than the price decline. Although the cost from ethylene and chlorine is decreasing, the profit of PVC is still low due to the large production. Soft PVC is more affected than hard PVC, because in terms of hard products market, the amount of large diameter pipes used in municipal is more than that of small diameter pipes, and the municipal application is not directly affected by the weak market demand like the housing market. The downward trend of housing demand cycle in the United States will last longer than expected, and it is estimated that it will reach the lowest point in the first half of 2007. In addition, the increase of domestic production capacity and the arrival of Asian capacity expansion flow will also affect the PVC market.

　　2006年全球PVC，MPP市场需求总量达到3200万吨，增长率为6%，亚洲市场需求增速将达到7%左右，其中印度增长率达到了12%。而北美市场需求增速预计为3.4%，中东为6%，欧洲市场为2%。预计到2009年PVC需求的年均增长在4%左右。2007年受建筑需求疲软的影响，北美利润下滑，而欧洲建筑市场需求强劲，MPP市场行转好。但亚洲受扩能的影响，PVC生产利润可能会停滞不前，中国更是如此。

　　近几年来全球PVC需求、开工率状况见表3。由于产能的大幅增长，使得中国PVC，mpp电力管开工率将明显低于全球平均值，北美由于缺少主要产能的增加，PVC开工率明显高于全球平均值，约为90%，不过估计全球的PVC开工率还将接近85%，并持续到2009年。

　　图表3：历年全球PVC需求增速以及开工率情况

年份 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

全球需求率 5% 1.60% 4.30% - 6%

北美需求 6% -1.80% 2.40% 3% 3~5%

全球开工率 - - 85% 90% 84~85%

北美开工率 90% - - - 90%

　　(一)北美PVC,MPP市场行情

　　北美PVC市场需求量和建筑市场密不可分，其中PVC总量的75%用于建筑和房屋应用方面，但去年建筑市场发展减速却抑制了PVC市场，2006年第4季度PVC市场为5年来最糟糕的一个季度。PVC的需求9月份以前降低12%，10月、11月份达到14%，降幅较大，而通常情况下房屋住宅对PVC需求的降低范围为2%～7%。随着房屋建设需求的低迷，北美PVC价格自去年以来一直处于逐步下滑的趋势，由2006年初的61美分/磅下降到今年初的54美分/磅，年均价为58美分/磅。2007年前两个月又下降2美分/磅。

2006年美国PVC,mpp电力管需求量为653万吨，比2005年降低3%。硬制管材和管件消耗PVC总量的46%，其他挤出耗用35%。由于住宅市场需求下滑，去年美国大部分PVC生产商都降低了开工率，PVC的利润也在降低，但幅度小于价格下滑。尽管来自于乙烯和氯的成本在减轻，但由于产量较大，PVC利润仍然较低。软制用PVC比硬制用PVC受到的影响要大，因为硬制品市场方面，市政使用的大直径管材量比小直径的多，且市政应用不像房屋市场直接受市场需求疲软的影响。美国建筑受房屋需求循环下滑的趋势将比预期持续的时间长，估计将在2007年上半年的某个时段达到最低点，另外其国内产能的增加和亚洲扩能流的到来也将影响到PVC市场。